Brazil sheepmeat access doesn't make up for live sheep ban

The federal government announced on Tuesday that Brazilian market access for Australian sheepmeat had been restored, talking up the growth of Australian sheepmeat exports after the ban of live sheep exports by sea passed through the Senate on Monday night.

But with Brazil only making up a minute proportion of Australian sheepmeat exports before it was suspended in 2020, it has reignited concerns that the government's plan to replace the live sheep trade with improved exports will not go far enough.

Agriculture minister Murray Watt talked up the resumption of the trade on Tuesday, saying that Brazil had a "sizeable and growing market for meat products where Australian products are held in high regard for their excellence".

"Restored market access for sheep products opens news opportunities for the Australian sheepmeat industry," he said.

Episode 3 market analyst Matt Dalgleish said even at its peak in 2016, Australian sheepmeat exports to Brazil only equalled 28 tonnes.

"Your average trade lamb is about 24kg carcase weight so you're talking about 1422 lambs per year that were going to Brazil when it was at its peak," he said.

"That 28 tonnes a year is about 0.005 per cent of our total sheepmeat exports per year.

In 2019, Australia exported just 12 tonnes of sheepmeat to Brazil.

Mr Dalgleish said he believed many WA producers would look to exit sheep altogether, rather than shifting to the boxed trade.

"A lot of the data I'm seeing now is suggesting that WA producers have been getting out of the trade entirely, not switching to boxed, just getting rid of their sheep," he said.

"It looks to me as if the flock in WA will be heading below 10 million head in the next few years.

"By the time the numbers come out for 2024-2025, I wouldn't be surprised if the WA flock has dropped by 4 million head to 8.5 million head of sheep."

Sheep Producers Australia board director and Western Australian sheep producer Bindi Murray said the industry had repeatedly asked for the government to show them the plan for how the transition could work without disadvantaging anyone.

"The government has repeatedly said, 'we've got this, we're going to sort it out' and the fact that some sort of market share increase in Brazil is seen as [making up for] offending some of our longstanding trading partners in the Middle East region who have consumption of fresh sheepmeat as an essential part of their culture, religion and family celebrations... that's a completely different market," she said.

"To try and equate the two and say that 'it's ok for us to take away one because look what we've got over here'... I think most members of the community will find that quite disingenuous.

"I hope it's not an indication of the level of planning they've put into this decision... if that is their big answer, then as an industry we're in a lot of trouble.

"Unfortunately it sounds a bit like clutching at straws."