An ordinary year for wool as industry awaits recovery

Throughout the whole season there was little price variation with only 87c between the high and low points of the season.

The low point was right at the start of the season after the last recess, when the EMI was 1126c, with a top weekly EMI of 1213c achieved in early January.

A total of 1,826,909 bales were offered during the season, down by 49,725 bales or 2.6 per cent.

The total value of wool sold was $2,228 million, down by $179 million or 7.4 pc from the previous season, largely due to the smaller offering.

There were only two weeks out of the whole season that saw the EMI close above 1200c, one in December and one in January.

After that prices slipped again, with the occasional bounce to the market.

The last two weeks of the season saw price declines despite the three previous weeks seeing small offerings and steady price increases.

Aurora Southern Markets partner Mike Avery said it had been a strange year for the wool market, which had operated in a much tighter range and also at a lower price level.

"There's a combination of things that have happened, not only has demand shifted overall but it's been concentrated on the very nearby window," he said.

"It's all to do with the confidence level so there hasn't been a lot of forward trade, it's been mostly indent and the market goes up and down with the currency, which usually isn't the case.

"When forward offers dominate the market, then mostly the currency is taken out of the market to a large degree because the vast majority of people don't risk their selling price on the vagaries of what the currency will be when they get paid, they always hedge their currency risk."

Mr Avery said challenging macroeconomic conditions meant it was hard to foresee when the market would experience a sustained lift.

"Twelve months ago we were saying we'd hopefully see a rally by Christmas, worst case scenario April and that feeling has just been carried on throughout the year," he said.

"Everyone's wishing that we would get a rally and a change in direction... it just hasn't happened.

"There's been no change in either of the two major conflicts in the world in Ukraine and in the Middle East, there's still disruptions to supply chains and everything else."

With the mid-year recess delayed this year by two weeks to offer sellers more opportunity to move wool in weeks one to four, it remains to be seen how the shift will impact the market.

Mr Avery said the recent three-week lift which saw the EMI rise 40c was the longest sustained push there had been for some time.

"The EMI put on 50c in December, but it was really just over two weeks... and it had done 90c over two months but there were a couple of breaths in between," he said.

"You probably wouldn't have been blamed for thinking we had found the bottom in late May and there was confidence that things had improved.

"There was a little bit more trading in the forwards and not just in the forwards, there were offers out in the coming spring and spring 2025 and 2026 a hundred over cash.

"So the turnaround in June was a little bit unexpected I think.

"The problem we've got at the moment is demand is quite shallow and although supply at this time of year is never at its strongest, demand is so inconsistent it only takes one or two players out of the market to see it pull back again.

"China's taking 85pc of our wool, they're motivated first to keep their machinery going and are buying hand to mouth to do that and then by longer term stimulation they're getting from Europe and the US.

"Now the signals go up and down, but in general they're still pretty placid."