The risk to the cattle market right now that outweighs heavier supply

Agriculture price reporting agency Argus' livestock expert Jess Clarke told a webinar this week that while a significant lift in slaughter and beef production was forecast, dynamics were at play that would stop a major over-supply.

Producers, particularly in the north, have enough feed around them to steady the flow of cattle onto the market, she said.

And processors were increasing kill volumes week-in, week-out and were positive about where they sit with staff, especially skilled staff. Processing was clearly in a phase of building capacity, she said.

Globally, there were also good opportunities for the increased volume of boxed beef exports from Australia and the live export outlook was promising.

"We are in a good position to absorb additional supply. We'll have markets there for these additional cattle," Ms Clarke said.

The one thing that could present a hurdle, however, was producer confidence, she felt.

"A lot of people incurred major losses when the market went up," she said.

"They bought in weaners at $2000 and sold feeders for $1000. I don't think enough time has passed yet.

"If supply comes on and prices start to drop, that low confidence could underpin panic sales."

The massive price slide of late last year was on the back of panic around an El Nino forecast, she said.

"That didn't eventuate and lengthy rain periods through summer created good pasture growth so prices rebounded dramatically," she said.

"April to June this year has seen price stability in cattle which is creating some relief through the supply chain.

"With good pasture in the north, producers are retaining what cattle they need but with a higher herd size there is enough cattle on offer to fill demand - that's why the price is stable."

The 80 cent a kilogram premium for Angus feeders in comparison to crossbred feeders currently at play would likely continue until the end of August, Ms Clarke said.

"During this part of the year we usually see a drop in Angus feeders available, which pushes their prices up. A supply increase in September should shorten that premium," she said.

Argus Australian Country Head Jo Clarke gave an overview of global beef demand at the webinar, which painted quite a positive picture.

She said Australia had lost market share to the United States in Japan in recent years but 2024 could turn that around.

Changes in trade flows had meant US beef had competed strongly with Australian beef in Asian markets.

"Inventories in Japan grew markedly through 2022 and stayed high in 2023 on the back of US herd liquidation," she said.

In 2018, Australia sent 60,000 tonnes more to Japan than North America sent but last year, Australia provide 20,000t less than North America.

"As Australian exports grow, and the strong US dollar makes our product more affordable, it will be interesting to see how this dynamic evolves," Ms Clarke said.

"Our exports to Japan have ramped up this year. We are on track to return as a dominant supplier to this market."

Meanwhile, with Europe the rhetoric was shifting to the pain not being worth the reward, particularly in light of confusing new deforestation rules, Ms Clarke reported.

Still, beef exporters have used 95pc of the 2023/24 EU quota, which is up from 76pc of the same quota the previous financial year.

The United Kingdom free trade agreement saw Australian beef's tariff-free quota grow significantly and while only 14pc of that new quota has been used, exports to UK have still more than quadrupled in the past year.

And in China, the reinstatement of access for plants that had been suspended for years will see trade flows adjust.

Those processors would likely look to reassert their position quickly in what is seen as a growth market, Ms Clarke said.

"Some abattoirs that were not suspended expanded their sales into China during the period and will also be looking to hold their ground," she said.

"It's worth noting Australian beef exports to China were pretty robust during the turmoil of the past few years."