The gap between processor capacity and the amount of extra sheep needing to be slaughtered after live exports are phased out in Western Australia could range between 40,000 to 86,000 head a month, with hundreds of millions in investment needed to bring the state's sector up to speed.
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That's according to evidence received by the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Agriculture's inquiry into the legislation around removing the live sheep trade.
According to Nutrien's Ag Solutions submission to the inquiry, the maximum processing capacity of WA's top five processors is calculated at 460,000 head per month, creating a theoretical short-term gap of 40,000 head if live export ceased.
But it's pointed out that might be higher in reality.
If it's assumed that the processing facilities with are running at 90 per cent capacity due to labour issues or other challenges, the report then places the shortfall at 86,000 head.
"The remaining minor processors in WA may not be able to absorb this volume," the submission reads.
During Friday's public hearing in Muresk, Western Australian Meat Industry Authority acting CEO I-Lyn Loo said that capital investments of more than $435 million were required for the expansion of processing capacity in Western Australia, based on conversations she'd had with eight abattoirs.
"Out of that $435 million, 48.6 per cent will go towards increasing chilling and freezing capacity; 23 per cent will go towards upgrading boning room infrastructure and equipment to allow value-adding to carcases; 7.9 per cent will go towards upgrading or building a rendering facility to manage waste; 6.45 per cent will go towards improving wastewater treatment; 6.43 per cent to upgrade processing infrastructure itself; and 7.71 per cent to go towards miscellaneous infrastructure," she said.
"I stress that the amount I've quoted is an outcome of the consultation I've had with these eight processors just to upgrade their capital infrastructure to accommodate the increased sheep and lamb through the system.
"The $64.6 million allocated to support the entire sheep supply chain in Western Australia does not come close to the capital investment required by these eight abattoirs."
Meanwhile Australian Meat Industry Employees Union representative Matt Journeaux told the hearing an additional 500 to 800 direct jobs in processing could be created by expansion of on-shore capacity.
Mr Journeaux said he had met with all the major processors across Western Australia about how the phaseout would benefit onshore meat processing.
"They were all confident they could expand operations and pick up any available animals due to live export ending," he said.
"All of them were keen to work with state and federal governments to develop a plan as to how this would happen."
Agriculture minister Murray Watt has continued to talk up the $107 million transition support package, even in the face of industry commentary that it was insufficient.
Mr Watt said he appreciated that more work would need to be done to scale up the meat processing industry following with the phaseout of live sheep exports.
"That's why we have opted for a four-year phaseout and provided $107 million of taxpayers money, to help with the transition," he said.
"Better animal welfare standards, more meat exports, more local jobs and more economic value being returned to Western Australia, that's what this policy is about."
The inquiry, being held by House of Representatives Standing Committee on Agriculture, is due to deliver its advisory report by Friday.