A degree of stability appears to be settling into cattle pricing with neither widespread rain nor a decrease in supply having much impact on a sideways-tracking market.
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Most categories are in the red today week-on-week, although only slightly, but the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator is showing a 12 cents a kilogram carcase weight lift on this time last week. Still, today's 614c/kg rate is 4c below where it was a month ago.
Meat & Livestock Australia has reported yardings last week eased by 30 per cent and this week's public holiday is expected to see that trend continue. In the south, most agents are reporting the rain is unlikely to fuel any massive boost in demand or stop numbers coming forward.
In some southern parts, the word is the picture would be very dire without the strong northern demand present at the moment.
"By far, the majority of our store cattle are being absorbed by commission buyers filling orders from northern NSW and southern Queensland," Elders Albury Wodonga agent Oliver Mason said.
"Traditionally, we have strong support locally for the spring calves working their way through the system at this time of year but this is the worst autumn we've seen around here for a long time."
Other southern agents said processor demand was back as well, with many plants full for at least the next month.
Cattle slaughter last week lifted for the third consecutive week to hit the largest weekly slaughter in four years, MLA data showed.
While that pointed to a more subdued market until the backlog reduced, it did provide opportunity for backgrounders and restockers whose pastures just got a nice drink, Mecardo's Nick Symon said.
In Queensland, agents are reporting a steady flow of cattle into yards despite good seasonal conditions, which is keeping a lid on the market even though demand is quite strong.
The season in the south is clearly the biggest concern at the moment but other cattle market dynamics are looking quite attractive.
ANZ's Agri InFocus Report winter edition said given the Australian cattle market was fairly faithful to the dynamics of demand and supply, it would be hard to argue with forecasts for higher prices in the medium term.
"Lower retail prices, strong export demand, peak herd numbers and forecasts for slight declines in both herd numbers and production all point to higher prices to come," ANZ's cattle market experts wrote.
"While season will always be the dominating factor in demand at the saleyard, the potential for a return to La Nina should provide a short-term boost. The only downside is the relatively abundant supply, particularly in the north, which may put some downward pressure on prices."
While slaughter rates were high, they were returning to a long-term average after a number of years of relatively low supply, the ANZ report said.
Exports were strong, although coming off a low base, however the impact of declining United States exports was already being seen, it said.
Shan Goodwin
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
