The International Grains Council (IGC) has dropped its forecast 2024-25 grain production by ten million tonnes on the back of issues in Russia and western Europe.
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In its latest Grain Market Report, released on May 23, the IGC forecast total grains production at 2.312 billion tonnes.
Wheat stocks are expected to get tight, with wheat consumption, 801 million tonnes, expected to outpace production, 795 million tonnes, for the second straight year, with carryover stocks falling to 260 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2018-19.
Concerns globally have been enough to give markets a significant kick.
Late last week nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures touched a high of US 720 cents a bushel before falling relatively sharply to US673c/bu on Tuesday morning Australian time on the back of forecast rain in Russia, although there is still scepticism about how much difference the Russian rain will make.
Some private forecasters issuing estimates of a wheat crop as low as 77.4 million tonnes, markedly lower than the April US Department of Agriculture figure of 92 million tonnes.
Other areas globally are having production issues.
The Indian government is expected to open the door to wheat imports for the first time in six years in order to attempt to replenish its dwindling stocks and keep a lid on food price inflation after a run of disappointing crops in 2022 and 2023 and the prospect of another below average crop this year.
This would see the current 40 per cent tariff on wheat imports abandoned.
Analysts are forecasting a crop as much as 6.25pc smaller than the current 112 million tonnes predicted by the Indian government.
Western Europe is also an area of concern.
Recent rains have dampened the outlook for France's wheat and barley according to French farm office FranceAgriMer.
A wet April was followed by a sunny start to May which helped waterlogged crops but further recent rain means wet conditions may damage maturing wheat and barley while preventing farmers from completing corn planting.
The condition of French wheat declined slightly last week to remain at a four-year low, with only 61pc of French soft wheat was rated as in good or excellent condition by May 20, down from 64pc a week earlier and 93pc a year ago, FranceAgriMer said.
There is some positive news, however, for grain growers in Canada where the region looks to be finally exiting one of its longest running drought periods on record.
The Canadian agricultural press said that while the drought has not officially ended there is reasonable planting moisture for the upcoming crop.