Heavy and trade lamb trumping light lamb

While generally lamb prices have improved by 10 to 20 per cent compared to last winter's lows, the heavy lamb and trade lamb indicators are significantly outperforming the light lamb and restocker lamb indicators.

The heavy lamb and trade lambs indicators sit just shy of the $7 mark at 699 cents a kilogram and 698c respectively, while light lamb is at 528c and restocker lamb at 585c.

According to Meat & Livestock Australia the gap between these indicators has now grown to around 30pc, with the largest gap seen in the period from August to October 2023 when the price eased due to both market sentiment and the weather outlook.

This year it's seasonal conditions driving the divergence in price with heavier lambs entering the market as a result of protein demand both domestically and in the United States, resulting in record sheep slaughter figures.

Meanwhile, a lower supply of light lambs has been driven by more restocker lambs being sent from west to east, with drier conditions in Victoria also playing a major role.

Episode 3 market analyst Matt Dalgleish said heavy lamb had been less readily available due to the season, with prices reflecting the shorter supply.

"Given where the US is sitting just in term of their red meat production ... that's creating a bit of extra demand this season for Australian beef and Australian lamb product," he said.

"If you look beyond the most recent movement, since about February, light lamb has been trending mostly sideways between that 500 to 600c range so we've eased a bit from those mid 500s back towards the 500c level, but I'd describe it as consolidating at the moment.

"But it has had some price pressure just in the last month ... the season has been a bit tough in a lot of areas with the lack of a proper autumn break on the east coast and in the west it's even more dire.

"Light lambs over in the west are nearly 300c behind the eastern states pricing."

Mr Dalgleish said he believed price improvements were coming, with the winter peak usually occurring in August and September.

"I think we are starting to hear anecdotally that supply's tightening up for certain types, particularly the heavy lamb," he said.

Livestock agent for Driscoll McIlree and Dickinson, Andrew McIlree, Nhill, Vic, said producers were under pressure this lambing season, with grain demand high.

"We're a big grain and hay growing area and a lot of the hay has sold, there's not a lot left in the area," he said.

"Grain has jumped $20, $30 or $40 in the last few weeks as the demand's come on ... it's a pretty tough time.

"We've got a lot of lambs on the ground here and there's not a lot of feed around, so anyone that's got stock is handfeeding them pretty much all the time now.

"It's turned cold now, so even if you do get rain now there's going to be limited pasture growth."

Mr McIlree said he believed most dry sold in the district would have been already sold, with producers now focused on ewe and lamb survival over the winter.

"The suckers are going to have a bit of a tough start, there won't be a lot of good early suckers around out of Victoria," he said.

"I think NSW is having a better time of it than we are so they might be able to get a few out of there, but some of the traditional areas of providing early suckers are not going to be there this year, like the south-east of South Australia. Even our Victorian mallee and up our Wimmera country are a bit the same."