Record numbers of cattle on feed and why it will likely be broken again

Turn-off rates have lifted too but not at the same rate, which suggests longer-fed programs which would be in line with increased numbers of Wagyu cattle coming through.

Regardless of whether it's a Queensland composite on 100 days or a long-fed Angus or Wagyu, all signs are pointing to increased demand for grainfed beef in key Asian markets.

Combined with emerging production trends in Australia, that points to even more cattle on feed records to come.

The latest figures from the Australian Lot Feeders' Association and Meat & Livestock Australia have numbers on feed for the March quarter at 1,354,747 head, which is above last quarter's record high.

Total numbers on feed increased by 60,216 head, or 4.7 per cent, with Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia rising by 7pc, 14.4pc, 11.3pc and 1.7pc respectively.

NSW numbers dropped 2pc across the quarter.

National capacity remained stable at 1.59m head whilst utilisation rates rose by 4pc, to 85pc.

Turn-off figures lifted 14pc to 761,550 head with every state having higher turn-off quarter-on-quarter.

However, that turn-off is still a distance from levels around 850,000 head in some quarters over the past decade, with analysts saying a break-down of the mix of long-term and short-fed would provide valuable insight.

There is no doubt, however, there is plenty of faith in the future of the lotfeeding business at the moment and forecasts across the board are suggesting global demand for grainfed beef will grow as 2024 progresses and into next year.

The reinstatement this week of exporting licences to China for a number of large processing facilities will likely further contribute to that opportunity.

Rabobank senior analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said considering tough economic conditions in places like China and Japan, the growth would not be 'gangbusters' but demand was projected to move in the right direction.

"There will always be a grassfed niche in these markets but consumers there are more used to a consistent, higher-marbling content beef and Australian grainfed fits into that," he said.

At the same time, there was a move among producers, particularly in Queensland, towards supplying more of a feeder-type animal rather than finishing heavy steers, Mr Gidley-Baird said.

"Again, it's a gradual trend rather than a definitive change but the attraction is in turning off an animal in 18 months rather than holding it for three years, therefore reducing exposure to bad seasons," he said.

MLA senior market information analyst Erin Lukey said the supply of feeder steers had been a factor influencing the numbers of cattle on feed.

"Throughput in MLA's feeder steer indicator lifted 13pc on last quarter, resulting in the largest throughput since March 2018," she said.

"Individually, most states experienced lifts to feeder steer transactions, with only WA reducing throughput when compared to last quarter and the corresponding quarter last year.

"A softening of feed grain prices over the reporting period, paired with feeder prices remaining relatively low, have supported more desirable margins for lot feeders."