The Labor Party has underestimated public sentiment against a ban on live sheep exports by sea and the policy was unlikely to win any new votes.
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As farmers launch a last-ditch campaign on Thursday to fight the phase-out highly-respected political strategist and former Victorian Labor deputy campaign director Kos Samaras also said polling around government performance by his company Redbridge in Perth recently found many residents raising the phase-out without being prompted.
"They clearly don't want industries that their state relies on being closed down because there are politicians on the east coast worrying about outrage culture on the east coast," he said.
The news comes after the Labor caucus met on Tuesday and agreed to introduce enacting legislation this week designed to phase out the industry by May 1, 2028.
The standing start position for #keepthesheep campaign organisers is another survey taken by the Labor-aligned Redbridge, partly chosen to conduct the focused poll by industry to avoid any suggestion of bias, in WA last year that found around 80 per cent of respondents' respected farmers and supported the live export trade.
The campaign is focusing on turning the heat up on the government by "educating" the one-in-five voters who are undecided or against the trade in the marginally-held Labor seats of Tangney (2.37pc), Hasluck (5.95pc), Pearce (8.98pc), Swan (8.99pc) and Cowan (10.7pc) rather than preaching to the converted.
The situation could be ringing alarms in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's campaign war room with Labor desperate to cling on to the WA seats it won in 2022 that secured its election victory.
Mr Samaras said the campaign presented a "localised" challenge for the government given WA's traditionally parochial nature.
"It could bounce pretty hard," he said.
"It is an entrenched mindset in WA and similar to the sort of mindset people in rural and regional Australia might have in seeing decisions being made in Canberra at their expense."
When formulating the ban as policy, Labor unlikely envisaged that it would be so successful in WA and that, now on the other side of the 2022 election, it could fall victim to the same parochialism that drew a voter backlash and saw them capitalise on Morrison government decisions perceived to be anti-WA.
Mr Samaras said the situation could become "a big problem" in a tight election.
"The last thing you should be doing as a government is shaving off cohorts of voters via controversial decisions," he said.
"It is difficult to see them turning this around, they made a tactical error in where it is going to impact them.There is only all downside, there is no upside and I don't understand why they did this when you would not win one east coast vote and risk losing votes in WA."
Conversely, Mr Samaras said a "ruthlessly pragmatic" Victorian Labor leadership recently decided to ignore a committee recommendation to ban duck hunting because it would win and lose few votes and only pick a big fight over a small purse.
The #keepthesheep campaign has been slowly building momentum through the WA farming sector since the grassroots push was first reported by ACM-Agri in early March. The first phase will concentrate on fund-raising around $200,000 that will then be used for a local media advertising blitz.
Mr Samaras said he could see a time where Labor would potentially overturn the live sheep ban "if (the party) becomes desperate to hold ground in WA" and did not fear a major voter backlash elsewhere.
"If it gets worse I can see a scenario where they will maybe contemplate an about-face but if the polls stay the way they are now I don't see a change of position coming," he said.
"But they cannot make up the ground anywhere else and they would not be prepared to lose, or can lose, any seats."
Animal Justice Party leader Louise Pfeiffer claimed it delivered the "knockout blow" by demanding the end of live sheep exports as a requirement for its preferences at the Dunkley by-election in Melbourne in March.
Despite this Mr Samaras claimed the AJP did not even staff booths on election day to throw preferences to Labor.
Meanwhile, legislation to be introduced on Thursday will formalise the end date and contains provision to get transition funding rolling, it comes five years after the government first made the election promise in 2019, before reiterating the platform in 2022.
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Minister Murray Watt said the Government was providing industry the "time, support and certainty" it needed to plan for the future.
"We have put $107 million on the table to ensure those affected by the phase out are well-positioned and ready when the trade ends in May 2028," he said.
"This is a policy that invests in the future of the Australian sheep industry.
"Funding from the Government will assist the supply chain to adapt to the phase out with more onshore processing and more value adding, together with action to enhance demand for sheep products domestically and overseas.
"While live sheep export numbers have plummeted in the last 20 years, now contributing just 0.1% of all national agricultural exports, sheep meat exports are going through the roof."
