All eyes through western and southern Australia are currently on weather maps as farmers watch a series of low pressure systems that are likely to deliver important opening rainfall for the winter crop.
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A Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) spokesperson said a rain band is forecast to extend from the Kimberley, through southern NT, and across much of SA on Thursday morning, before extending into western NSW, western Vic, and across Tasmania on Thursday afternoon and evening.
It will then move over eastern Vic, central and eastern NSW, and southwestern Qld on Friday.
Following that, over the weekend another system will form over south-western Western Australia, with early models suggesting it could deliver between 10-30mm over key agricultural zones.
![The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) eight day forecast shows southern and western Australia may finally see some rain after a dry autumn. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) eight day forecast shows southern and western Australia may finally see some rain after a dry autumn.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/9b4d2c24-f8b0-4cf0-b7f5-f7faf8497374.png/r0_0_641_434_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
However, the Bureau spokesperson cautioned that while there was reasonable confidence about the system bringing further rainfall to parts of WA, particularly the west coast, it was too early to be confident about rainfall amounts, and which areas may see the heaviest rainfall.
In terms of the band coming on Thursday, the Bureau is expecting around 2-10mm over much of parched South Australia, with areas of 10-20mm mainly in the central and western agricultural districts, with some isolated falls of 20-35mm.
Western Victoria, which has also been very dry through autumn, could see widespread falls of 5-15mm, locally heavier near the northern slopes of the ranges.
North-eastern Victoria may experience heavier rainfall, with the potential for totals of 30-60mm about the high country, and possible 20-40mm on the northern slopes. Gippsland is likely to be in a rain shadow with the front coming from the north-west and may only see 5-15mm.
In NSW there are also likely to be widespread falls of 5-15mm, possibly 15-30mm over the ranges and in the northeast.
The BOM spokesperson said the rain is being driven by a cold front associated with a low pressure system that is expected to strengthen over the Southern Ocean.
This system will manage to tap into tropical moisture from over the Indian Ocean, and a north-west cloud band is expected to develop across the continent, which will be responsible for the widespread rainfall.
It marks a change from the prevailing patterns this autumn.
So far this autumn Australia's weather has largely been dominated by strong high pressure systems which have blocked the passage of cold fronts across the continent, forcing them southwards away from Australia.
The good news from the Bureau was that this prevalent blocking high weather pattern appears to be breaking down, which they said would be as expected as we move towards winter, and the subtropical ridge moves north.
"It is expected that weather systems become more mobile, which should allow more rain-bearing systems to reach southern parts of Australia including Victoria," said the spokesperson.
In South Australia, Grain Producers South Australia chairman John Gladigau, who farms near Loxton in the Riverland, said there was significant anticipation, especially in the state's higher rainfall zones.
"It has been very dry basically everywhere, but where I am, in the northern Mallee or Riverland we're probably more used to it, whereas further south it is markedly drier than you would normally see it," Mr Gladigau said.
"Definitely through key growing regions like the south-east and the Yorke Peninsula they are really looking for a rain to get the crop up."
He said even if the rainfall tallies were relatively low it was a promising sign as the weather pattern was changing.
"Over the years you often find the first system slightly disappointing but then once moisture levels start to build you see better results."
He said he was not overly concerned about light falls causing a false break, where seed germinates but there is not sufficient follow-up to sustain the crop.
"The false break is more an issue in early autumn when you can get some really hot temperatures following the rain, now it is cold, the days are short so the amount required is a lot less."
In Western Australia, Mark Fowler, WAFarmers grains section president and Williams farmer, said there was a lot riding on the upcoming front, particularly in the case of canola.
"We have a situation where some farmers have crop up and some don't, there has been patchy rainfall, but a general soaking rain would be good, especially for those that have canola in the ground," Mr Fowler said.
"There were people who have dropped canola due to the dry autumn outlook and gone for a lower risk option but there were other areas with slightly more rainfall where it has gone in."
"To maximise yields you want it up as early as possible, which hasn't been the case for many this year but the sooner the better."