![Mark Fowler, WAFarmers grains section president, says the situation in the west is patchy as autumn sowing draws to a close. Photo supplied. Mark Fowler, WAFarmers grains section president, says the situation in the west is patchy as autumn sowing draws to a close. Photo supplied.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/d3803298-ec17-4247-98ac-066d7e71b187.png/r407_46_1078_698_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
The 2024 autumn cropping plant is nearing completion, but much of the crop is awaiting rain to germinate.
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NSW and Queensland have enjoyed a kind start to the winter cropping season but the vast majority of the rest of the country is waiting for an opening rain to get crop out of the ground.
With the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasting negligible rainfall across the country over the next eight days, farmers over much of the southern and western regions are highly unlikely to have crop germinated until at least June.
Given soil temperatures will then be cooling off and the limited sunshine hours on offer this in turn is likely to mean limited crop growth until days start to lengthen once again in late July.
Stefan Meyer, StoneX cash grain broker, said farmers in dry regions were in a complicated position, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issuing a La Nina watch, with La Nina events correlated with above average rainfall, but conditions in the paddock remaining bone dry.
"Right now, the country is trapped in an extremely unusual and unpredictable weather system, with different states experiencing drastically different amounts of rainfall," Mr Meyer said.
He said the weather patterns had meant some regions had benefited, while others had missed out.
"The persistent high-pressure system over the Great Australian Bight is pushing rain into northern New South Wales, meaning that no rain is falling in South Australia".
" At the same time, Western Australia is undergoing what I would characterise as a heat wave.
"As a result, we've seen a lot of dry sowing as farmers move ahead with planting winter crops despite a lack of moisture in the ground, and in the wetter regions, we've seen a bumper start for winter croppers."
Grain Producers Australia chairman Barry Large said growers hoped for an early break in order to get canola out the ground, with the oilseed performing best with a longer growing season.
However, he said expectations of an ANZAC Day break were not backed up with data, with the average date of the break much later in May.
Mr Large said while a lot of canola had been dry sown and farmers could not reverse the decision to plant any unplanted areas slated for canola in original rotation plans could be switched to cereals.
Not all of Western Australia is parched, WAFarmers grains section president Mark Fowler, who farms at Williams in the southern wheatbelt, said there had been some sporadic rain through May which has boosted prospects for those lucky enough to get the showers, however he said further falls would be welcomed everywhere.
Meanwhile, GPA northern director and AgForce grains president Brendan Taylor said there had been close to too much rainfall in Queensland.
While it has been largely welcomed for winter planting it has caused significant downgrading issues of a large sorghum crop.
The mood remains relatively buoyant for many in southern NSW and Victoria in spite of a slow start.
Much of the Riverina has received rainfall, while Victorian croppers are generally sitting on a large bank of subsoil moisture so crops will only require minimal opening rainfall to allow them to push roots down into moisture.
Victorian Farmers Federation grains group chair and Wimmera / Mallee farmer Craig Henderson said seeding was well advanced in spite of the lack of opening rain over the western half of the state.
"There is a good profile across most of Victoria and for a majority of us, seeding is well on the way," he said.
In the Riverina, NSWFarmers grains committee chair and Brocklesby grower Justin Everitt said more rain was needed to help their dry sown crops to germinate, but added the state as a whole was in good order.
"We're a bit drier right here than the rest of the Riverina and there's been a lot of rain across most of the state," he said.
After a run of positive seasons South Australia is emerging as a concern, with neither the opening rains of northern NSW and Queensland or the subsoil moisture of Victoria.
Grain Producers SA chief executive Brad Perry said the conditions remained parched.
"Any rain we've had so far has been very patchy and overall conditions are dry," he said.
Mr Meyer said analysts were already expecting the dry start to have a material impact on yields at the end of the year.
At present he estimated Western Australia, which normally produces around 10 million tonnes of wheat, is on track for a 4.5m tonne harvest.
In South Australia he estimated a wheat crop of 4m tonnes at the most down from an average of 5.5m tonnes.
He said a number of anomalies highlighted the odd weather across the country.
Both Kangaroo Island in SA and King Island in Tasmania, both normally high rainfall zones, are dry, with King Island livestock producers bringing in a significant amount of feed.
In the west Mr Meyer pointed out the weather in Narrogin, in the middle of a key wheat-growing region where it has been averaging 25 degrees over the past week, over 10 degrees warmer than the late May average.