Talk of a wildly higher global beef market based on the contraction in cattle numbers that has taken place in the United States was hosed down somewhat at Beef Australia in Rockhampton.
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Rabobank's US animal proteins analyst Lance Zimmerman, based in Kansas, said what was coming would be more like a slow-moving storm than a tsunami.
He did say, however, that those types of storms could be the most impactful and were better for everyone.
Speaking at Rabobank's traditional Knowledge Breakfast, Mr Zimmerman also gave an update on the the highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, which has spread into ruminant animals, with cases in dairy cattle in the US.
In cattle, it is known as bovine influenza A virus, or BIAV. It does not kill cattle.
Mr Zimmerman said the beef industry in the US has been on high alert.
"We've learned a lot in the past few weeks about this disease and the good news - if there is any - is that it's transferring from cow to cow via milk," he said.
So the dairy industry was putting in place massive sanitation and sterilisation processes.
"The challenge is that it is only showing up in 10 per cent of the cow herd - in older dairy cows in late lactation," Mr Zimmerman said.
"What we have just found out is the problem is the younger dairy cows are also being affected but they are asymptomatic and so therein lies the challenge for our dairy industry.
"From a beef industry standpoint we've not had any cases. The milk transfer nature of the spread limits the risk in the beef herd.
"The biggest concern is that the lifetime achievement of every dairy cow is ending up on a hamburger, so there is a lot of concern the government might start testing beef in retail cases in states with affected cows."
Columbia was the only country not taking beef from states with infected dairy animals but another two countries were informally talking in export channels about not wanting US beef, Mr Zimmerman reported.
Columbia is the 13th largest market for US beef from a value standpoint but the problem was 80pc of what it took was super high quality beef, he said.
What Australia should look for
There were two triggers Australian cattle producers should be on the lookout for as signs a US rebuild was starting to push global beef prices up, Mr Zimmerman said.
"One is price-related. Right now we have a futures market that is simply telling cattle producers and beef purveyors 'prove to us the cattle aren't there," he said.
"The market wants to see to proof of the fundamentals before it prices it in."
Prices for April 2025 were below where the cash market traded through April this year, Mr Zimmerman said.
"That makes no sense. Based on the supply we expect to see, it should be well above where we are now but it's not," he said.
"So one thing I'm watching if I'm in your shoes is when does the futures market catch on.
"The other thing is a little more practical - what's beef cattle slaughter doing in the US.
"The average culling rate over the past three decades in the US is around 10pc - that level holds pretty consistently.
"We're going to end this year at 10.7pc so we are still in a slight liquidation.
"When will the cow-calf man really put the brakes to cow slaughter. When does that culling rate go well below 10pc?"
Mr Zimmerman said it would not shock him if the US cattle herd stayed in a stabilisation phase longer than what would be comfortable.
He said even though there had been higher cattle prices, there had been "insane volatility".
This included a 20pc rally late last year, that was then all given up in a short period afterwards and then most of that regained.
"That's jarring for the entire production system," he said.
"What does the price need to be to get producers to jump on board? It's not just a price discussion but 'can we get the market to stop shoving price volatility down our throat'."
Mr Zimmerman said last year's forecast good rains for North America failed to deliver in a widespread nature and key cattle regions in the US were still - or again - facing tough seasonal conditions.
He described sentiment in the countryside as "pretty sour".
On the US consumer demand side, things were looking more attractive.
Beef consumption rates in recent times had been among the highest for years, Mr Zimmerman reported.
Since COVID, consumption had been on the rise and the first three months of this year had seen the second highest levels, outside of the COVID years.