How Queensland cattle people make drought decisions: Decide and Thrive research

These are the words used by researchers conducting cutting-edge behavioural science work into how livestock producers make the decisions that carry them through drought.

The Decide and Thrive drought preparedness project, being delivered by the University of New England, CQUniversity and CSIRO, aims to come up with regionally-relevant livestock ranking strategies that secure farm businesses into, during and out of drought.

The first step has been a deep dive into the decision-making processes and management strategies of producers and it has revealed fascinating differences depending on where cattle are being run.

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Ten producers in Queensland were interviewed, with predominantly beef properties ranging from 4000 to 140,000 hectares. Most were family-owned.

Researchers said the "bigger is better" mentality was prevalent in Queensland and as such, mob-based decision making was more common.

The lesson to cull early had been learned and that was based firstly on reproductive performance. Most do not give a second chance to cattle who do not fall pregnant.

The prevailing mindset in Queensland is to build bigger operations rather than focus on improving livestock genetics.

"Nevertheless, our findings suggest that data-based tools may be useful for psychological safety and have potential to help producers make more informed decisions," the researchers said.

Queenslanders appear to have now adopted the position of 'always in drought' so what might have started as a short-term approach has become the norm, the work found.

"Decision making is a mixture of gut feel, lived experience and some use of experts," the researchers reported.

There was also a difference in attitude between younger, debt-heavy producers, and those who were older and more financially comfortable, with the former more willing to embrace objective tools and new practices.

Around half the operations primarily focused on a profit-based business model, while others were motivated by a combination of factors including succession planning, environmental concerns and lifestyle choices for retirement, the research found.

"Our findings reinforce the message that early decision-making is crucial. Indeed, most producers talked about the importance of making difficult decisions quickly and decisively. Early decision making helped to reduce stress and uncertainty," the researchers said.

"It is important to note that making decisions early does not mean acting hastily or without careful consideration. Having a plan and carefully considering the reasons for culling helped ensure decisions were in line with broader goals and objectives."

In Queensland, decision-making was heavily influenced by peer and family networks. Although participants were not overly reliant on experts, they do seek the advice of consultants and paid advisors when required.

CQU researcher Dr Cathy O'Mullan said the insights gained would not only assist technology developers, but also farm consultants in approaching how they offer support and provide information designed to improve drought management strategies.

"It appears clear that most producers are receptive to the message to 'decide early' and 'not look back', but it will be important for advisers to show how stock ranking tools can help make this decision easier as to which animals to keep or cull," Dr O'Mullan said.

"The messaging also needs to tap into both objective and subjective information processing by producers - nearly all producers still rely on some level of local knowledge and experience to inform decision making.

"This local knowledge needs to be respected, especially given there is an inherent mistrust of advice from scientists if they are not familiar with the local environments. Gut feeling, intuition and history are important and must be part of a balanced message that a rankings tool/system is just part of a suite of information sources that producers should consider when decision making."