![The sector is hoping it will be the next commodity to have its China ban lifted. Picture by ACM The sector is hoping it will be the next commodity to have its China ban lifted. Picture by ACM](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/37sRjZccYfaNxXbGxARzun2/af5d5415-5086-411e-9f7f-a2213a59c656.jpg/r0_80_1500_927_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
CHINA could lift its ban on Aussie wine in the next six months if the barley dispute is settled soon as expected.
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But the wine industry has warned it's lost ground in the China market, which won't be the $1.2-billion golden goose it once was.
Trade Minister Don Farrell said Australia was expecting a favourable decision in China's review of its barley tariff "in the next couple of weeks".
"We're resolving all of these issues bit by bit," Senator Farrell said.
In April, Australia agreed to suspend its case with the World Trade Organisation over China's anti-dumping duties on barley, while China fast tracked a review into the tariffs.
China's wine tariffs are also the subject of a WTO dispute. Australian Grape & Wine chief executive Lee McLean said the grain sector was about six months ahead of the wine industry.
"There's still lots of work to do and lots of water to go under the bridge before we get to wine, but if this works for barley, it provides the template," Mr McLean said.
Although there is still reasonably strong demand for Australian wine, there was "no question" the Chinese market had changed over the last few years.
"We've lost some market share over the the last few years and Australian producers shouldn't expect it to return to the $1.2-billion peak in the short-to-medium term," Mr McLean said
"The market itself has changed and contracted. People are not necessarily buying the same volumes of wine, partly due to lockdowns and a slowing of the economy.
"The way wine companies do business in China has also changed, with a bigger focus on online distribution channels, so we'll have to adjust how we do business."
Other commodities affected by China's tariffs and unofficial bans offset the impact by successfully diversifying into other markets.
But wine has struggled to replace the massive market. At its peak, the Chinese market was worth more to Australian growers than the sector's next two biggest importers combined, the United States and the United Kingdom, both worth $500m.
There has been some positive movement in Japan and South Korea, while Vietnam and Thailand hold promise, but will require continued effort.
South-east Asia as a whole is an emerging wine market, being fuelled by the same factor that led to the Chinese market explosion - a growing middle class.
"It's absolutely the same sort of trajectory as China...in those emerging wine markets, as the middle class grows, it shifts away from traditional drinks," Mr McLean said.
"We saw that in China, and now in India too, which were predominantly beer and heavy spirit markets that were male dominated.
"As economies grow and the middle class expands, people are looking for other options. Wine is viewed as a sophisticated drink and as a lighter alcoholic option, with more people in those countries becoming health conscious."