Demand for Australian grain intensifies as market focus shifts

This was due to a general lift in buyer intensity to try and purchase Australian grain continuing as buyers looked for more coverage.

Fifty three different buyer businesses purchased grain offered for sale through Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) for the second week in a row.

In addition to the 53 buyers that bought grain, there were another 57 buyers searching for grain on CGX but unable to find the grain they required, or unable to bid the price growers were asking for.

In total, buyers conducted more than 10,000 searches for grain on CGX just last week.

This contrasts with the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures July contract which closed at 567 US cents per bushel on Friday, ending flat from last Friday's close of 566 USc/bu.

International physical traded prices for wheat as tracked by Argus also continued to show general improvement.

Market participants appear to be starting to focus on the fact there are unknowns regarding the 2024 crop and some risk premium may be starting to be added back into price.

Crop condition ratings for US winter wheat fell one per cent last week to 65pc good to excellent as reported by the United States Department of Agriculture.

This is above the five-year average of 47pc good to excellent, however the downward trend has the market on alert.

European crop conditions remain the worst experienced since 2020 and dryness in the Black Sea region continues to be reported by market analysts.

On top of this, the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran and ongoing attacks from Russia on the Ukraine seemed to add urgency to the market's response.

The conflict in the Middle East has also weakened our currency as the market buys perceived 'safe haven' currencies like the US dollar.

The Australian dollar has softened to 64 USc at the time of writing, down from 66 USc a month ago in mid-March.

This move adds approximately A$10/mt to Australian prices at current international pricing levels.

Growers are actively engaging the market and offering grain for sale as prices improve which is keeping buyers engaged to buy grain in their area.

Some growers are wanting to secure price but delay cashflow and have been actively offering grain for sale for delivery in future months on CGX.

Future delivery dates can often match when buyers want the grain better and are often trading at better prices reflecting a win-win for sellers and buyers.